Tobias Massier
Publications

Modelling ASEAN’s Road Transport Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions Using a Bottom-up Approach

Publication Information

Publication data

Type:
Conference paper
Authors:
Shiddalingeshwar Channabasappa Devihosur, Anđelka Kerekeš, Tobias Massier and Thomas Hamacher
Published in:
Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE PES 17th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC)
Publisher:
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), New York (New York, United States of America)
Publication date:
December 2025
Pages:
1–8
Conference:
Conference location:
Auckland (New Zealand)
Conference dates:
02 December 2025 – 05 December 2025
Abstract:
The final energy consumption of the transport sector of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has grown 1.96-fold since 2005. The continuation of historical trends is expected to result in a 2.6-fold increase by 2050 as compared to 2022. This paper analyses the future road transport energy demand of ASEAN by applying a bottom-up approach through the energy demand modelling framework called endemo. The final energy demand is computed for the base year of 2020 and deviates by only 4 % from the International Energy Agency (IEA) data. ASEAN's road transport energy demand is expected to increase almost 4-fold in 2050 as compared to 2020 due to economic-driven vehicle population growth without electrification. With the same growth in vehicle population paired with country-level electrification, the energy demand increases by only a factor of 1.2 as compared to the base year. For the same electrification policies without any vehicle growth, that number drops by 36 %. A 74 % energy demand reduction is expected in 2050 in comparison to 2020 by applying 100 % electrification policy across all vehicle types and nations assuming the vehicle population remains constant. Implementing a power generation mix dominated by 90 % renewables and large-scale electrification leads to an emission reduction potential of 86 %. The results suggest that existing electrification policies may not be sufficient in meeting climate goals. Vehicle population control measures, electrification policies, and a cleaner power generation mix allow for greater carbon emission reduction and extended benefits across the region.
Keywords:
Road transport, Electrification, Energy demand, Endemo, Linear regression, Carbon emission reduction

Further information

Publication status:
This paper has been accepted for publication, but it has not yet been published.
It is not available online yet.

Resources

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Format: 
@inproceedings{Devihosur_ModellingASEANsRoad_2025,
  author    = {Devihosur, Shiddalingeshwar Channabasappa and Kereke{\v s}, An{\dj}elka and Massier, Tobias and Hamacher, Thomas},
  title     = {Modelling ASEAN's Road Transport Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions Using a Bottom-up Approach},
  year      = {2025},
  month     = dec,
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE PES 17th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC)},
  publisher = {IEEE},
  address   = {Auckland, New Zealand},
  pages     = {1--8},
  keywords  = {Road transport, Electrification, Energy demand, Endemo, Linear regression, Carbon emission reduction},
}
@inproceedings{Devihosur_ModellingASEANsRoad_2025,
  author    = {Devihosur, Shiddalingeshwar Channabasappa and Kereke{\v s}, An{\dj}elka and Massier, Tobias and Hamacher, Thomas},
  title     = {Modelling ASEAN's Road Transport Energy Demand and Carbon Emissions Using a Bottom-up Approach},
  date      = {2025-12},
  booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2025 IEEE PES 17th Asia-Pacific Power and Energy Engineering Conference (APPEEC)},
  publisher = {IEEE},
  location  = {Auckland, New Zealand},
  pages     = {1--8},
  keywords  = {Road transport, Electrification, Energy demand, Endemo, Linear regression, Carbon emission reduction},
  pubstate  = {accepted},
}
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